The Florida Gators (1-1) will host the Texas A&M Aggies (1-1) this Saturday in the SEC opener for both teams. Florida enters the matchup following a dominant 45-7 win over Samford, bouncing back after a 24-point loss to Miami in their season opener. Texas A&M also rebounded from an opening loss to Notre Dame with a 52-10 blowout victory against McNeese State. The all-time series between the two schools is tied at 3-3, with the teams also deadlocked at 2-2 since A&M joined the SEC in 2012.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla. According to SportsLine consensus, the Aggies are 3-point favorites, with the over/under set at 45 points. Before making any Florida vs. Texas A&M predictions, it's worth checking out the picks from SportsLine’s proven model.
This model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its launch, it has returned a profit of over $2,000 for $100 bettors on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model also finished last season with a 13-9 record on spread picks and is off to a 4-0 start on over/under picks this year. Anyone following the model has seen impressive returns.
The model has now focused on Florida vs. Texas A&M. You can visit SportsLine to see its picks, but here are some key betting lines for the game:
- Florida vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -3
- Florida vs. Texas A&M over/under: 45 points
- Florida vs. Texas A&M money line: Texas A&M -156, Florida +130
- Florida vs. Texas A&M picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Florida can cover
Texas A&M hasn’t won a road game since October 2021, suffering 10 straight away losses, the longest streak in school history and the second-longest active streak in FBS. The Aggies’ defense has struggled to stop the run this season, allowing 189 rushing yards per game, the second-most in the SEC.
Despite defensive-minded head coach Mike Elko, A&M has had difficulty containing both running backs and quarterbacks. They gave up 198 rushing yards to Notre Dame, including 63 yards from QB Riley Leonard, and allowed another 180 yards on the ground to McNeese State. Florida’s dual-threat QB DJ Lagway, the top-rated in his class, along with starting QB Graham Mertz and RB Montrell Johnson Jr., who ranks fifth in the SEC with 173 rushing yards, will be a tough challenge for the Aggies' defense. See which team to pick here.
Why Texas A&M can cover
Florida is on a tough streak, having lost three straight home games against Power 4 opponents and four consecutive SEC games. The Gators' defense has struggled, allowing 39 or more points in five straight conference matchups. Florida is also allowing the most passing yards per game (264.5) and the second-most yards per play (5.4) in the SEC.
On the offensive side, the Aggies are coming off a game where they posted 11 plays of 15-plus yards and totaled 333 rushing yards. Six different Aggies carried the ball, each averaging at least 5.4 yards per carry. Additionally, Texas A&M has won seven straight games against unranked teams and Florida has a poor record against the spread at home, going 2-6 since the start of the 2023 season. All of this makes A&M a strong contender to cover. See which team to pick here.
How to make Florida vs. Texas A&M picks
The model has simulated the Florida vs. Texas A&M matchup 10,000 times, with the results in. It is leaning towards the Over, projecting 52 total points, and has generated a point-spread pick hitting nearly 60% of the time. You can see the full pick at SportsLine.
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